I’ve been thinking about Pokémon a whole bunch lately, particularly about the online community and how much time has passed. The competitive players I considered my friends are so far in the past that the next generation after them is considered the “old school.” I met many of them during Generation 1, and one of the most fascinating times was in the transition to Generation 2, particularly with regard to theorycrafting.

The importance and limitations of theorycrafting is something all players have to deal with in any competitive environment, but back when information was scarce and we only had questionably translated materials from the Japanese release, it really felt like something different. As with every generation change, players on sites like Azure Heights tried to figure out what would be strong in Gold and Silver. One answer that came up was Starmie.

On paper, it made sense. Starmie was among the top picks in Red, Blue, and Yellow. It was fast. It hit hard. Its movepool was also among the best. Not only did it learn powerful moves that benefited from its Water/Psychic typing (Psychic, Surf, Hydro Pump), but it could also cover every type combination in the game with Ice Beam and Thunderbolt (or Blizzard, which was ~90% accurate in Gen 1), and it learned amazing defensive/support moves in the paralyzing Thunder Wave and the health-restoring Recover. Being Psychic type was also a huge boon in a generation where they had no actual weaknesses.

Gen 2 introduced egg moves: techniques that Pokémon could only learn via breeding. This could potentially be transformative, and one move stood out in Starmie’s list: Confuse Ray. Being both paralyzed (25% chance to not move at all combined with a 75% speed reduction) and confused (50% chance to hit yourself and not execute a move) was among the most annoying things to deal with in Gen 1. To have parafusion on a single Pokémon seemed like a nightmare scenario, and so Starmie was predicted to be a serious meta threat. 

Time proved things out differently, however. While parafusion could still be annoying, the changes made to the battle system went far beyond players’ early theorycrafting. The dividing of the Special stat into two (Special Attack and Special Defense) meant that moves like Amnesia and Psychic were not quite as effective. The introduction of the Dark and Steel type, and to a lesser extent the improvements made to Bug, all took away the Psychic types’ major advantage. Curse turned out to be an incredibly strong move, especially when paired with an incredibly bulky choice like Snorlax—even when stuck in place while paralyzed and confused, they could weather the storm and Rest off the damage. Heal Bell, a move that removed all the status effects inflicted on your own team, trivialized attacks like Thunder Wave. And this is the generation Mean Look and Perish Song was introduced, creating the Perish Trap strategy that could lock opponents in and force them into no-win scenarios.

Back then, the false hype of parafusion Starmie taught me something important: People will theorize based on their previous experiences because that’s what they have to rely on, and that strength is relative. Strategies don’t exist in a vacuum, and things that were considered universally strong sometimes falter in a different environment. (And sometimes, things are actively nerfed.) This is far from the only instance of theory not matching practice in Pokémon or even beyond, but it’s one I remember with a strong tinge of nostalgia.